FORECAST OF DEVELOPMENT SWIMMING PERFORMANCES BY MEN AND WOMEN

G.Sokolovas

Swimming department, Lithuanian Institute of Physical Education,
Kaunas, Lithuania

INTRODUCTION. The forecast of best performances in swimming is important in career training swimmers. Coaches must know the level of results in future, when the swimmers age of best performances achieved. It will help to organize and manage the longitudinal training. The aim of this study was to predict best results by swimmers in future. In this way we can evaluate the development of swimming.

METHODS. The best way to deal the development in swimming is investigation of trends past Olympic games gold medal or World records performance times. In this study we investigated trends of performances by Olympic games winners from 1952 to 1996. For evaluation of trends were used different mathematical functions. The highest degree of reliability demonstrated modified exponention function (Balandin V.I. etc., 1986; Sokolovas G. etc., 1996). Therefore we used this function for forecast of performances by Olympic winners 2000.

RESULTS. Athletes performances improve constantly. Coaches in collaboration with sport scientists research the adaptation of athletes to various training loads. This is resulting in creation of new more effective methods for development of physical qualities. Quality of sports equipment, nutritional supplements are improving significantly as well. These all factors stimulate progress of results in swimming and other sports.

The trends of Olympic gold medal times were approximated in according to regression of modified exponention function. Some Olympic games (1980 and 1984) collected not all best swimmers. Therefore for these years were used current world records. We calculated next coefficients of regression: a, b, K. The most important is coefficient "b". It shows the rate of increasing of gold medal times.

On this basis we evaluated the development of swimming velocity for different distances, stroke and gender. There were established more rapid development of swimming velocity by women than by men. This different was established on all distances and stroke. In comparison of swimming strokes the more rapid development of swimming velocity was by fly. This swimming stroke is the youngest and was included to Olympic games in 1956. Coefficients "b" by others strokes were very close. The distance orientation by swimmers affects also on development of swimming performances. The longer is distance, the more rapid increase performances.

A part of results of this investigation are presented on table 1. Coefficients correlation for these forecasts are very high - from 0.945 till 0.979. Most forecasted performances for Olympic games 2000 are higher than current world records.

DISCUSSION. Progressions of gold times are related with progression of swimming science, coaches education, economy level, medicine and others. Based on these trends predictions on future times can be made. Times for Olympic games 2000 can be predicted with a pretty good degree of certainty. It is important to know for coaches and athletes a possible development of future results in sport. Therefore, scientists must make predictions for what will it take to win at the Olympic games or any other level in various events. This forecast can be made either for the next Olympic games or for the future games. The same way a career goal for the athlete should be established prior to the beginning of longitudinal training at 10-11 years of age.

Table 1

The coefficients of regression by prognoses of Olympic 2000 winners performances

The best results in forecasting of the future achievement can be done mathematically. Our research demonstrated that these trends can be analyzed by certain mathematical dependencies with high degree of reliability. The trend of world records vary for men and a women. In early years, the difference between women's records and men's was very significant. In the recent years this gap has been narrowed. Hypothetically, this difference will continue to be reduced. Specialty also affects these trends: distance swimmers has recorded faster improvements, than sprinters.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. Balandin V.I. etc. Prognose in sport. - Moscow, 1986. - 192 p.

2. Sokolovas G. Plaukimas (swimming). - Vilnius, 1996. - 217 p.

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Sokolovas, G. Forecast of development swimming performances by men and women // Человек в мире спорта : Новые идеи, технологии, перспективы : Тез. докл. Междунар. конгр. - М., 1998. - Т. 1. - С. 273-274.